Views:6 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2017-08-25 Origin:Site
Rationally look at the rise in tungsten concentrate prices (China Tungsten Industry Association Secretary-General Liu Liangxian) tungsten ore resources is to protect China's economic security, national defense and strategic development of new industries necessary strategic mineral. As early as 1991, the State Council will be tungsten, tin, antimony, ion-type rare earth minerals as a national implementation of protective mining specific minerals, in 2002 began to implement the total control of tungsten mining management. "National Mineral Resources Planning (2016-2020)" developed a strategic mineral directory, the tungsten and other 24 kinds of minerals included in the strategic mineral directory, continue to implement the total control of tungsten mining management, by 2020, tungsten mining The amount of indicators controlled at 120,000 tons / year, clearly associated with the comprehensive utilization of tungsten ore into the total amount of mining management indicators. Promote the development of tungsten resources and regional development, industrial development, environmental protection, resource protection coordination, strengthen the total control of mining management, strengthen the industry self-discipline, prevention and control risks, maintenance and consolidation of tungsten concentrate market stable and healthy operation, promote tungsten resources protection And rational development and utilization is worthy of attention and research.
First, tungsten concentrate price analysis
(A) the price trend by the global economic development, China's tungsten concentrate market prices after 2004 long-term downturn after the shock, there is a sharp shock. According to China Tungsten Association statistics, the average price of domestic tungsten concentrate from January 2004 26,000 yuan / ton up to May 2005 of 132,000 yuan / ton, or up to 408%; from May 2005 13.2 Million yuan / ton down to December 2008 58,000 yuan / ton, down 56%; followed by sharp shocks rose to May 2011, 154,100 yuan / ton and July 2013 15.55 million / ton; 2013 years later , By the inventory, pan-Asian events and slowdown in market demand and other effects, from July 2013 15.55 million / ton down to November 2015 54,600 yuan / ton, down 64%; 2016 supply and demand contradiction Improvement, the price bottomed out, from November 2015 54,600 yuan / ton back to December 2016, 7.24 million yuan / ton, or 32.60%, for 4 consecutive months to maintain at 70,000 yuan / ton; 2017 Continued to stabilize rebound, from January's 70,200 yuan / ton up to June's 81,600 yuan / ton, or 16.24%; 2017 second half, demand continues to pick up, tungsten market supply more tense, tungsten concentrate prices Accelerated, domestic tungsten fine Prices in July exceeded 900 yuan / ton, August exceeded 10 yuan / ton, September exceeded 1.2 yuan / ton, in August the average price of 99,800 yuan / ton, up 43.19 percent, up 42.17 percent over January. Tungsten concentrate overall price level and reasonable price there is still a certain gap, still deviate from the value of resources. The cumulative average price of 8,171,000 yuan / ton, up 19.81% year on year, slightly higher than the cumulative price of 1-8 months 2015, has not yet returned to the 2014 level, compared with the cumulative price of 1-8 months 2011 13.58 million yuan / ton of historical highs fell 40.28%. Domestic tungsten concentrate prices rose to stimulate the steady return of international prices. London, China Metal Bulletin (MB) September 1, 2021 APT offer 285-300 US dollars / ton, after a period of 32 months to return to 300 US dollars / ton price, the average price in August 255.25 US dollars / ton, than January rose 30.94 percent, the average price of January-August 217.54 US dollars / ton, up 14.29 percent year on year.
(B) the impact of adverse factors: First, by the global economic recovery is weak, China's economy into the new normal, the market tungsten demand growth slowed down, and more than 2 years of low prices of enterprises to inventory led to oversupply. Second, enterprises in the price decline, the cost of double squeeze and overcapacity, technical level, the ecological environment under the triple constraints, increased risk, increased market competition. Third, the mineral processing enterprises irrational throwing arbitrage, as well as the market for bad information and non-mainstream price rendering and speculation, the transition rendering social unrealistically high inventory, pan-Asian investment inventory release market "haze" is expected to seriously dampen the market Confidence, caused the market panic, breaking the market balance, exacerbated the price decline. The above factors eventually led to tungsten concentrate prices fell to November 2015 54,600 yuan / ton more than expected price bottom, since December 2014, tungsten concentrate prices for 31 months lower than the national average mining costs, 2015 Industry-wide loss of 1.2 billion. Favorable factors: First, China's industrial economy is stable to the good, the foundation continues to consolidate, investment growth overall stable, investment structure continued to improve, and tungsten consumption is closely related to the major industry added value year on year growth. PMI for 13 consecutive months is located in the expansion of more than 50.0% range, driven by the stabilization of the manufacturing economy, the downstream tungsten industry showed steady growth trend; since 2017, the high investment in infrastructure, the demand for sustained release. Second, the world's major economies continued to recover, export growth growth, strong growth in market demand, and after more than two years to inventory, domestic and foreign downstream enterprises tungsten raw material inventory in the historical low, supplement the stock will gradually increase, further boost demand. Third, more than two years of unilateral concussion decline, tungsten mining enterprises to reduce production capacity, as well as the strengthening of environmental safety supervision, tungsten ore production cut, tungsten concentrate production decline, coupled with the 2016 national purchasing and storage and commercial purchasing and storage, tungsten raw materials Supply tension, greatly easing tungsten market supply and demand contradiction, boosted market confidence, through the "haze" market expectations. Fourth, the rigidity of tungsten mining costs rise, the strengthening of safety and environmental protection, as well as the introduction of environmental protection tax, the market price play a certain supporting role. The above factors led to the first half of 2017 domestic tungsten concentrate prices continued to stabilize rebound in the second half of the rapid rise, return to the national average near the mining line.
(C) rational view of price fluctuations on the production and operation of enterprises have a direct impact, to rational view of tungsten concentrate prices rise. First, the value of tungsten ore resources to determine the price of tungsten products, market supply and demand is the fundamental factor affecting the price fluctuations. Changes in market supply and demand lead to changes in the price is a normal market price mechanism, malicious competition and speculation led to the ups and downs of the price is not conducive to the tungsten production and operation of the industry and healthy development. Second, the rise in domestic raw material prices to the downstream product prices to leave sufficient digestion time to tungsten concentrate prices to promote tungsten smelting processing product prices rise to prevent tungsten concentrate prices and smelting processing prices upside down, the formation of tungsten industry Chain equilibrium price. Third, tungsten concentrate prices stable at a reasonable price, low-grade tungsten resources can be fully utilized to prevent the rich and poor, is conducive to tungsten ore resources protection and rational development and utilization. At the same time, it is also conducive to improving the mechanization of mining equipment, automation level. As tungsten concentrate prices lower than the cost of mining, China Tungsten Association statistics within the tungsten mining enterprises in 2015, 2016 for two consecutive years of serious losses. 2017 tungsten concentrate prices stabilized rebound, the overall economic benefits tend to improve the industry. In the first half of 2017, the market price continued to stabilize and rebounded. The profitability of the tungsten enterprises was reduced, the loss-making enterprises were reduced, the profitability was enhanced, and the economic situation of the industry continued to improve. China tungsten industry statistics in the first half of the year to achieve operating income growth of 18.65%; profits and taxes increased by 116.90%; total profit increased by 336.84%. Among them: tungsten mining enterprises profit loss; tungsten smelting, carbide and tungsten enterprises to achieve profit year on year increase of 218.83%, 115.68% and 22.37%. Statistics within the enterprise loss of 30.8%, compared with the same period last year to reduce the loss of 9.2 percentage points. However, due to the overall price of tungsten concentrate has not yet rebounded to the reasonable level of mining costs, tungsten mining enterprises face loss of 63.64%, the loss is still serious, the industry has not been fundamentally improved economic efficiency, continued to good situation needs to be further consolidated. First, to control the total. China's tungsten mining is not only the environment, resources, capital, labor costs rigid rise, heavy taxes and fees, safety and environmental pressures, the cost advantage is significantly weakened, and the cost difference, market competition. Tungsten concentrate prices, including foreign tungsten mines, including reconstruction, rehabilitation and production of enterprises will increase, to strictly control the total tungsten mining, maintenance and consolidation of market supply and demand balance. Second, to rational sales. To prevent irrational sales arbitrage, to prevent the price ups and downs. Rational control of tungsten primary and secondary products exports, stable international market prices, give full play to China tungsten resources advantages. Third, to prevent and control risks. To prevent the market malicious speculation, take precautions, pay close attention to and prevent market uncertainty caused by the market risk.
Second, the market supply and demand analysis (a) the situation of foreign supply and demand From the supply perspective, the overall tungsten concentrate production is stable, the stock tends to remain tight situation remains. First of all, due to the low price, foreign shutdown, cut and stop the construction of tungsten ore is still more in the production of about 20 or so at the current price is still difficult to resume production and start, tungsten concentrate production remained stable. Second, the amount of foreign waste tungsten has been reduced. As the waste tungsten and native ore price difference weakened, recycling as before. Such as Japan's new metal, combined materials to reduce the amount of waste tungsten recovery. Third, the US and Russian national reserves are low, raw material supply enterprises, downstream enterprises, middle traders, as well as consumer products such as end consumer inventory is still at a low level. From the demand, foreign tungsten market demand will continue to maintain restorative growth. First, with the "landing along the way" investment projects, the global infrastructure interconnection, the re-industrialization of developed economies and manufacturing upgrades, emerging economies, industrialization and urbanization process will accelerate tungsten demand growth. Second, the world's major economies continue to recover, will continue to stimulate the recovery of tungsten demand. Since the fourth quarter of 2016, the PMI indices in the US, Japan, the UK, France and other emerging economies have remained above the peak. Japan's economic recovery signs are obvious, for six consecutive quarters of economic expansion, the best level since the financial crisis. The euro zone economic situation is optimistic, the euro zone 19 countries in the first half of the economic growth over the United States, investors confidence in the economy reached the highest in 10 years, the unemployment rate fell to the lowest point in eight years. Not only the traditional economic growth engine Germany and the Netherlands growth rate is obvious, Spain, France, Portugal and other financial crisis in the country suffered a significant recovery. Emerging market countries to maintain a good momentum, a quarter of Brazil's GDP fell 0.35% year on year decline in the year than in 2016 narrowed 2.11 percentage points, reflecting the recovery of the growth trend. Since April 2017, Brazil PMI for two consecutive months on the line. Brazilian CPI continued to fall since 2016, from 10.7% in January 2016 to 3.6% in May 2017. South Africa's GDP grew 0.96% in the first quarter, the highest since the third quarter of 2015. May South African manufacturing PMI reached 50.4, while April PMI was only 43.2, reflecting the fragility of the recovery in South Africa. April CPI5.25% in South Africa, December 2016 up to 7.07%, showing inflation in South Africa has eased. Third, the price stabilized rebound, foreign manufacturers to increase the desire to add inventory, tungsten market demand recovery growth. In 2016, China's exports to Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States tungsten (excluding carbide, the amount of tungsten metal, the same) grew 0.51%, 6.08%, respectively, 40.29 and 0.94%. In the first half of 2017, China exported 14,700 tons of tungsten, an increase of 46.29%, exports of $ 430 million, an increase of 40.65%, a 10-year high. Which exports to Europe 4570 tons, an increase of 32.52%; exports to the United States 3028 tons, an increase of 168.39%; exports to Japan 3380 tons, an increase of 42.91%; exports to South Korea 2559 tons, an increase of 26.40%. July exports of tungsten 2745 tons, an increase of 42.21%, affected by foreign high temperature holiday, the chain growth rate has been down, but still at a high level. 1-7 month total exports 17,486 tons, an increase of 45.63%, the cumulative export volume of 507 million US dollars, an increase of 39.47%. China's exports of carbide continued to maintain growth. In the first half, exports 3621 tons of cemented carbide, an increase of 16.03%, growth has improved. (See Figure 6), but also clearly aware that the global economic recovery is still complex and changeable, trade protectionism tend to rise, unstable uncertainty is still more, developing countries, economic growth is still slow. In the long run, economic and social development of mineral resources, consumer demand fundamentals have not changed. (B) the domestic supply and demand situation from the supply point of view, although the tungsten concentrate production will be restored due to price increases, but tungsten concentrate production is generally stable, there will not be a large increase. First of all, China's tungsten mining continue to implement control, control the distribution of mining rights, tungsten ore mining capacity growth slowed down. At the same time, safety, environmental protection, the continuous strengthening of supervision, as well as prices, funds and other reasons to stop production or cut production, tungsten concentrate production will continue to remain stable overall. The provinces that have been discontinued in 2016 are Anhui, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Qinghai, Shaanxi and Zhejiang provinces. Some provinces are Guangxi, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, and more than 100 tungsten mines are shut down Mainly small-scale mines). The current price, due to a long time to suspend production, and sometimes difficult to recover. According to China Tungsten Association statistics, the first half of 2017 39 major tungsten mining enterprises tungsten concentrate production 33851 tons, an increase of 7.93%. As the first half of 2016 production fell 14.68% year on year, lower base, resulting in a larger increase in production. Second, China's tungsten ore mining after 100 years, tungsten resources grade decreased year by year, the national treatment of ore grade from 0.42% in 2004 fell to 0.16% in 2016, the cost of rigid rise, tungsten concentrate production